Mason Professor’s Research Shows No Decline in Voter Turnout Since 1972

By Broadside Staff Writer Edwin Mora

The U.S. Election Project, led by an assistant professor at George Mason University, aims at extending research on voter turnout rates in this country by calculating the turnout rate for eligible voters.

Michael McDonald, an associate professor of Public and International Affairs, has made calculations that show that the decline of voter participation is a result of the formula used to measure it.

“The way it’s been done recently is missing the growing ineligible population,” McDonald said. His measurements show that the voter-turnout rate has declined because the common rate that is calculated does not account for ineligible voters.

A common formula used to calculate turnout rate is to divide the number of votes by the “voting-age population.” This includes everyone age 18 and older who lives in this country, even those who cannot vote.

According to the U.S. Election Project’s web site, “This includes persons ineligible to vote, mainly non-citizens and ineligible felons, and excludes overseas eligible voters.” This common formula yields a decline in voter turnout in the last decades.

When McDonald calculates the turnout rate he uses the same formula, but only includes eligible voters in the voting age population in order to make his final conclusions. McDonald’s way of measuring voter turnout does not result in decline in voter participation since 1972.

“I’m collecting data from places like the Census Bureau and Center for the Study of the American Electorate,” McDonald said.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Center for the Study of the American Electorate now use a citizen voting-age population when calculating turnout rates. This takes into consideration non-citizens, who allegedly make up the largest number of ineligible voters.

McDonald, who is constantly updating numbers, also gathers data from the U.S. Department of Justice to account for felons, who are ineligible to vote. The Election Project, which started in 2001, is part of McDonald’s academic research. He is the sole sponsor and researcher of the project.

The mission of the project “is to provide timely and accurate election statistics, electoral laws, research reports, and other useful information regarding the United States electoral system,” according to the U.S. Election Project web site.

Through the project, McDonald aims to provide information on how the electoral machine operates, ways to make it better, and how people can engage with it.

During the November elections, McDonald is on the decision desk of the national exit poll organization who reports the projected number of voter turn-out.