2008 Race Recap: Where Are We Now?
By Connect Mason Columnist Lars Garvey Laing-Peterson
Most sportswriters agree with the sentiment that a quarterback’s talent is judged more on his performance in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl than on his record during the regular season. With presidential hopefuls falling from sight as their campaigns’ funds dry up after less-than-impressive numbers during the early primaries, we are essentially entering the Presidential Playoffs. CNN has even dubbed a segment of its political coverage the Ballot Bowl. While there are plenty of the big names and big dollar organizations we all expected to reach this stage, a few candidates are performing at a level that was unthinkable before winter break.
The Republicans
Arizona Senator John McCain achieved a degree of support in New Hampshire and South Carolina that Vegas bookies would have laughed at only a month ago. On Jan. 29, McCain has a chance to become the clear Republican frontrunner in Florida before Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, challenging not only former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee’s strong evangelical support, but former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s victories in Michigan and Nevada. McCain could also introduce some serious concern for former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani’s campaign, which seems to be making a last stand in Florida.
Despite being the target of numerous vicious, dirty attacks in 2000, McCain’s momentum from New Hampshire was not derailed in 2008 by the once powerful voices of Tom DeLay and Rush Limbaugh.
“In part,” Washington Post staff writers Juliet Eilperin and Jonathan Weisman wrote on January 20, “the attacks fell short because even the opponents could not unite behind an alternative. Many economic conservatives were even more opposed to Huckabee. Romney, a Mormon, could not ignite the interests of social conservatives. And former senator Fred Thompson, who was initially viewed as the candidate of the old Republican coalition, failed to catch fire.” Huckabee himself congratulated McCain on his South Carolina victory, saying in his concession speech in Columbia that McCain ran “a civil and decent campaign.”
Washington Post journalist Dan Balz suggested on Jan. 20 that South Carolina almost claimed another campaign, writing in his coverage of the Nevada and South Carolina primaries, “Thompson delivered a speech that baffled even some supporters. Normally laid-back, he thundered on for 10 minutes in language that seemed to point to a withdrawal statement. But he abruptly ended the speech with ‘God bless you!’ and walked off the stage. There has been speculation for some time that Thompson would quit the race if he did not finish strongly in South Carolina, with the expectation that he would endorse McCain, whom he supported eight years ago.” Republican candidate Duncan Hunter quit after the Nevada vote and Thompson followed suit a few days later, but, as blogger Todd J. Gillman wrote on his blog for the Dallas Morning News, “He’ll live on in reruns."
Romney, after his win in Nevada, announced to supporters in Jacksonville, Florida, “This is a campaign that does intend to participate across the country. We're not concentrating on just one region or a few states.” While Romney was pushing his message across his home state of Michigan and further into the West, Huckabee, Thompson, and McCain focused themselves more intently on South Carolina.
Now all eyes are on Florida and Super Tuesday.
The Democrats
Comeback Kid Clinton… again? After the bloggers spent the entire afternoon proclaiming a victory for Illinois Senator Barack Obama in New Hampshire, New York Senator Hillary Clinton stole the win out from under the rustle of hype and sensationalism. Then, just as it seemed the winds were turning for Clinton, members of congress started to endorse Obama, former presidential candidate John Kerry amongst them. And so it continues, Obama and Clinton, even into Nevada where Clinton emerged with a win. The Obama camp said they would not treat Nevada as a loss as they won one more delegate than Clinton. “…Obama’s campaign was successful by another measure — in the allocation of delegates to the national nominating convention, a result of a complex formula that gave more weight to votes in some parts of the state,” New York Times writers Jeff Zeleny and Jennifer Steinhauer reported on Jan. 20 in their piece ‘Vote of Women Propels Clinton in Nevada Caucus.’
“The Nevada results contained some worrisome signs for Obama along demographic lines,” wrote Shailagh Murray and Anne E. Kornblut in the Washington Post article ‘Women, Latinos Propel Clinton To First Place,’ continuing, “The heavy support that Clinton won among Hispanics suggested that [Obama] could face an uphill climb to win that important group in California, New York and New Jersey, the three most populous states with primaries on Feb. 5.”
While some worried that the inertia which propelled Obama over Clinton in Iowa was beginning to fade, his recent victory in South Carolina shows that Obama’s message of hope and of change was strong enough to lift him out of the shadows of two back-to-back losses in New Hampshire and Nevada. Regaining something approaching equal footing, Obama has hit the stumps again, as has Clinton. It’s the same arguments we’ve heard since the beginning, “Hope and Change” on one hand, “Experience and Change” on the other. Edwards has, to some extent, slipped from view and was almost completely ignored during the now infamous Clinton-Obama flair up at the South Carolina debate. Alaska Senator Mike Gravel hasn’t gained much traction, not that many expected that they would, and with the departure of New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich, it seems that the song will continue on as we know it now: two competing melodies promising change.
This song took a nasty turn last week, with both Bill and Hillary Clinton being chastised by the Democratic Party for their attacks on Obama. “That's beneath the dignity of a former president,” Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick J. Leahy said of Bill Clinton to reporters after Obama and Clinton’s sharp exchange at the recent Democratic debate. “He is not helping anyone, and certainly not helping the Democratic Party.” Leahy even went so far as to call Bill Clinton’s rhetoric on Obama “glib cheap shots,” and urged both parties to settle down, according to Alec MacGillis and Anne E. Kornblut’s article ‘Some in Party Bristle at Clintons’ Attacks’ in the Washington Post.
As expected, Senator Obama took South Carolina on Jan. 26, though many politicos may not have foreseen the margin by which Obama would carry the state. With 99% of the votes counted, Obama won 55% of the state's support, with Clinton trailing well behind with 27% and South Carolinian John Edwards claiming third place with 18%. This has provided the two front runners with two states each –Clinton holding New Hampshire and Nevada, Obama with Iowa and South Carolina – as Super Tuesday approaches. The situation will become much clearer in the near future, after February 5’s Super Tuesday vote to be exact. Even if Obama had lost South Carolina, an unlikely scenario leading up the vote (though remember that everyone had counted McCain out only mere weeks before New Hampshire, so the unlikely has become very real in this strange 2008 Election), Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza (The Fix) felt confident that “Organizationally and financially, Obama is equipped to battle Clinton for the long haul.”
With the endorsement of Caroline Kennedy, John F. Kennedy’s daughter, and the very probable public announcement of support from Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Obama has picked steam after the set backs in New Hampshire and Nevada. But, never to be outdone, Clinton has the backing of Robert Kennedy, Jr., the son of the late Bobby Kennedy, a figure that Obama has been compared to numerous times.
The Business End
Many have cracked jokes about politics being a blood sport, but few took the sentiment as seriously as Hunter S. Thompson, author of arguably one of the best political documents ever scribed, Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ’72. In that humor, I present as a summation (and a nice cyclical return to how this article began), the odds of the various front runners to receive their party’s nomination for presidential candidate.